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Pivotal Pennsylvania: Presidential Politics from FDR to the Twenty-First Century
By G. Terry Madonna
This information supplements a volume in the Pennsylvania History Studies Series, published by the Pennsylvania Historical Association.
Sources and Additional Information
The following summaries provide a comprehensive list of the sources used in the preparation of this narrative history of modern Pennsylvania presidential elections. Some additional explanations also supplement the text and suggest context for the presidential elections under review. Additional full citations appear at the end in the bibliography.
Introduction
A solid, standard account of the Republican political organization in the late nineteenth century, the operation of the Republican political machine, and the Democratic opposition can be found in Philip Klein and Ari Hoogenboom's, A History of Pennsylvania (University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1980), 360-372. A witty and well-written account of the political bosses who dominated the politics of the state in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries can be found in the chapter entitled "The Rogues" in Paul Beer's Pennsylvania Politics Today and Yesterday: The Tolerable Accommodation (University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1980), 41-57. The latest splendidly written and researched history of Pennsylvania is must reading: Randall L. Miller and William Pencak, eds., Pennsylvania: A History of the Commonwealth (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2002). For a well-written overview of the state's political and governmental history, see John F. Coleman, "Pennsylvania Politics: A Tercentennial Perspective," Pennsylvania Heritage, Tercentenary Issue 3 (1981): 58-63. Frank Sorauf's now older work, Party and Representation, published in 1963, has an excellent but brief summary of the Republican rule from the late nineteenth century through the 1950s (see pages 11-15). It also contains an analysis of how the political parties functioned in the twentieth century, including a description of political culture in the state (see pages 43-62). The various national nominating conventions are covered quite well in Herbert Eaton's Presidential Timber, which has been an important source especially for details of conventions from 1932 to 1960. Eaton covers the political intrigues leading up to the presidential nominations, the issues debated at the conventions, and the nomination votes.
Pennsylvania presidential voter turnout is available at the Franklin & Marshall web site, http://www.fandm.edu/x4528.xml , in Pennsylvania Manuals, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and at Wilkes University on a site created by Harold Cox, http://staffweb.wilkes.edu/harold.cox/pres/indexpres/html. For polling data before the 1980s, Pivotal Pennsylvania relied mostly on polls completed by the Gallup organization and reported in newspapers and news magazines. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sponsored the Pennsylvania Poll in the 1980s and the Keystone Poll, now produced at Franklin & Marshall College, began its work with the 1992 presidential election. The national television networks in recent years have used exit polls to assist in their post-election coverage. Over the years, they have employed a consortium of survey researchers to design, implement, and analyze the survey data. These polls have state components, and Pennsylvania's exit polls have been made available recently on the national network web sites. The exit polls from 1988 that appear in the text were obtained from the University of Connecticut's Roper Center, but where they have been made available on network web sites the appropriate URL is cited. An additional source for exit polls is the ICPSR ed., Ann Arbor, Michigan, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
See Joe William Trotter's River Jordan, African American Urban Life in the Ohio Valley (Lexington, Ky.: University of Kentucky Press, 1998), for an important account of the changing status of blacks in the period and Andrew Buni, Robert L. Vann of the Pittsburgh Courier: Politics and Black Journalism (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1974),193-94. The starting point for any analysis of black voting in the city of Philadelphia begins with the thorough and ground-breaking study of Black Politics in Philadelphia. In chapters by Oscar Glantz, William J. McKenna, and Charles A. Ekstrom, readers will gain an understanding of voting patterns, the politics of Philadelphia, and the struggle by blacks for political inclusion from the New Deal to the 1960s civil rights period. Richard C. Keller, Pennsylvania's Little New Deal (New York: Garland Publishing Inc., 1982), contains an older but still important analysis of the politics of the New Deal in Pennsylvania; for a pioneer work on the patterns of electoral vote realignment, see James L. Sundquist, Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States, rev. ed. (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1993). Also see H. F. Alderfer and Robert M. Sigmond, Presidential Elections by Pennsylvania Counties 1920-1940 (State College, Pa.: Pennsylvania State College, 1941), 61.
1932: Roosevelt and Hoover
Though forty-five years have passed since its publication, a solid introduction to the New Deal remains William E. Leuchtenburg, Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal (New York: Harper and Row, 1963). For a description of the economic conditions in Pittsburgh during the Great Depression, see Bruce Stave's The New Deal and the Last Hurrah, 33. Stave also recounts the role Joseph Guffey played in assisting Roosevelt to secure the Democratic presidential nomination (32), and analyzes the votes in Pittsburgh during the presidential elections of Roosevelt during the New Deal (181-182). For a detailed description of the effects of the Great Depression in the state and Governor Pinchot's relief efforts, see Keller, Pennsylvania's Little New Deal, 66-100. By July 1932 Guffey was recognized nationally as the leader of the Roosevelt for president movement in Pennsylvania, according to New York Times, July 10, 1932. No study of the Roosevelt years and Pennsylvania during the 1930s and 1940s would be complete without consulting Seventy Years on the Red-Fire Wagon by Joseph Guffey. This slender volume provides a first-hand account of his relationship with FDR, his days as a U.S. Senator, and the politics of the period, especially in the state. Two chapters are particularly helpful in understanding the period: "The Little New Deal," 99-111, and "Roosevelt Again," 112-118. For an account of the Republican and Democratic conventions, including the role played by Pennsylvania leaders, see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber (Free Press of Glencoe, 1967), 321-360; Michael P. Weber's Don't Call Me Boss: David Lawrence, Pittsburgh's Renaissance Mayor (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1988),52-54, is a very readable and authoritative account of Governor David Lawrence's political career and politics in Pennsylvania; also see the New York Times, July 10, October 31, November 7 and 9, 1932, and the Philadelphia Inquirer, November 2, 1932. Richard Keller, Pennsylvania's Little New Deal, covers briefly FDR's campaign in the state and provides a brief analysis of the 1932 presidential results (see 118-120).
1936: Roosevelt and Landon
For an account of the Republican and Democratic conventions, including the role played by Pennsylvania leaders, see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 361-367. For some interesting highlights of the Democratic convention in Pennsylvania, see John P. Rossi, "Philadelphia's Forgotten Mayor: S. Davis Wilson," Pennsylvania History 51 (April 1984): 154-156. The presidential campaign of 1936 is amply covered in Richard Keller's Pennsylvania's Little New Deal, 223-243. Michael P. Weber's Don't Call Me Boss describes FDR campaigning in the state and his coattails in the 1936 election (see 120-121). A solid account of Landon's political career is Donald R. McCoy's Landon of Kansas (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1966); also see the Philadelphia Inquirer, October 1, 1936.
1940: Roosevelt and Willkie
For an account of the Republican and Democratic conventions, including the role played by Pennsylvania Leaders, see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 368-401; "Pennsylvania after the New Deal," The New Republic, May 6, 1940, 599-60; John M. McLarnon, Ruling Suburbia: John J. McClure and the Republican Machine in Delaware County, Pennsylvania (Dover: University of Delaware Press, 2003), 132-133; Hugh Scott, Come to the Party (Englewood Cliffs., N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1968), 12-16; Dan Rottenberg, "The Sun Gods," Philadelphia Magazine, September 1975, 1-18; Joseph Guffey, Seventy Years, 115-17, 126-27; Michael Weber, Don't Call Me Boss, 183; and Stephen B. Grove, "The Decline of the Republican Machine in Philadelphia, 1936-52" (PhD diss., University of Pennsylvania, 1976), 246-61.
1944: Roosevelt and Dewey
Edward Cooke, in "Patterns of Voting in Pennsylvania Counties, 1944-1958," Pennsylvania History (January 1960), 69 -87, examined county voting patterns in the transitional period, 1944-1958. One important conclusion he reached was that newly found increasing Democratic margins in urban areas and Republican control of suburban and rural communities meant that Pennsylvania elections would be very competitive in the 1960s and beyond. For an account of the Republican and Democratic conventions, including the role played by Pennsylvania leaders, see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 402-409; Michael Weber, Don't Call Me Boss, 181-187; Stephen B. Grove, "Decline of the Republican Machine," 392-93; Frank Freidel, Franklin D. Roosevelt: A Rendezvous with Destiny (Boston: Little Brown and Company, 1990), 565.
1948: Truman and Dewey
An interesting review of the national nominating conventions held in Philadelphia was written by Tom Infield and appeared in the Philadelphia Inquirer, August 18, 1996. For an account of the Republican and Democratic conventions, including the role played by Pennsylvania leaders, see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 410-425; another report of the conventions held in Philadelphia has been written by James A. Kehl, "Philadelphia, 1948: City of Crucial Elections," Pennsylvania History (Spring 2000), 313-326. For a solid account of David Lawrence's relationship with and support for Harry Truman in 1948, see Michael Weber, Don't Call Me Boss, 330 -334. Edward Martin's autobiography, Always Be on Time (Harrisburg: The Telegraph Press, 1958), is a useful account of Martin's political activities.
On African American voting, see William J. McKenna, "The Negro Vote in Philadelphia Elections," Pennsylvania History 32 (October 1965): 406-15.
1952: Eisenhower and Stevenson
David Lawrence's influence at the 1952 Democratic convention was instrumental in helping Adlai Stevenson earn the nomination; his importance is detailed in Michael Weber's, Don't Call Me Boss, 334-338. The communications between Joseph S. Clark and Stevenson can be found in the Joseph S. Clark Papers, Box 22C, Historical Society of Pennsylvania; also see "The President Maker," Time, June 30, 1952, 18-21, and the New York Times, November 11, 1951. Paul Beers has an assessment of John Fine's political career in Pennsylvania Politics in a prophetic chapter entitled "Tragic John Fine" (173-189), which relates the political intrigue and personal rivalries within the Republican Party during the 1950s. He also describes the political background of Democratic Governor David L. Lawrence, his support of Adlai Stevenson, and his reluctance to support John Kennedy in 1960 (on pages 239-266). Hugh Scott's revealing personal account of his political career discusses his efforts on behalf of General Eisenhower leading up to and including his 1952 presidential nomination in Come to the Party (pages 67-107). Joe Alex Morris has written a perceptive account of Governor and later Senator Jim Duff's role in Pennsylvania and national politics, "That Guy Duff," Saturday Evening Post, August 18, 1951. Also see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 432-35, and for a brief analysis of the 1952 conventions and some of the intrigue and drama, see Dom Bonafe, "Did the Famous Smoke-Filled Room…Really Take Its Last Bow in 1952," National Journal, March, 19, 1988, 726-727. Bonafe makes the case for Stevenson becoming the nominee because he was the second choice of most delegates, and he argues that the 1952 convention was the last "truly deliberative convention, culminating in more than one round of balloting."
1956: Eisenhower and Stevenson
See James A. Finnegan to Joseph S. Clark, June 9, 1956, Clark Papers, Box 26A, Historical Society of Pennsylvania; and Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 483-88.
See Jack M. Treadway, Elections in Pennsylvania: A Century of Partisan Conflict in the Keystone State (University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 2005), 24-49. Treadway's excellent book covers many elements of modern Pennsylvania politics and elections. In Chapter 2, "A Century of Electors," he examines Pennsylvania voter registration and voter turnout. His voter turnout percentages have been used in this study, but they are also available at www.politics.fandm.edu/ under Pennsylvania election information.
1960: Kennedy and Nixon
A preview of the Pennsylvania primary can be found in Congressional Quarterly, March 4, 1960, 344, and the results in Congressional Quarterly, April 29, 1960, 717. Also see Herbert Eaton, Presidential Timber, 491-510. Lawrence's role at the 1960 convention can be found in Michael Weber's Don't Call Me Boss, 359-366. For an excellent brief account of the 1960 election, see Keith Polakoff's Political Parties in American History, 379-387. In Pittsburgh, late in the campaign, Eisenhower made his last speech for Nixon to a huge throng of people, according to Hugh Scott, much larger than any that had turned out in Pittsburgh for Kennedy or Nixon. See Come to the Party, 178. James Michener, Report of the County Chairman (New York: Random House, 1961) contains a full description of Michener's political activities. For another analysis of the voting behavior of Pennsylvania voters toward Catholic candidates in 1928, 1958, and 1960, see Daryl R. Fair, "The Reaction of Pennsylvania Voters to Catholic Candidates," Pennsylvania History 32 (July 1965): 305-313. Also see Theodore H. White, The Making of the President 1960 (New York: Atheneum Publishers, 1960), 326-33; William J. McKenna, "The Influence of Religion in the Pennsylvania Elections of 1958 and 1960," Pennsylvania History 29 (October 1962): 407-19; Neal R. Peirce, The Megastates of America (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1972), 62-71; John J. Kennedy, Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004 (Lanham: University Press of America Inc., 2006), 175-76. Kennedy's superb brief analysis of presidential elections in chapter 5 (pages 167-190) provides a solid summary of presidential elections from 1956 to 2004.
1964: Johnson and Goldwater
Klein and Hoogenboom in a History of Pennsylvania provide a brief description of William Scranton's tenure as governor on pages 514-520. Also see George D. Wolf, William Warren Scranton—Pennsylvania Statesman (University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1981), 53-55; note especially the solid account of Governor Scranton's legislative program, 71-85. His presidential bid is covered in the same volume in a chapter aptly entitled, "The Presidential Loser," 87-121. As part of the Scranton effort to win the nomination, Hugh Scott, along with his fourteen Pennsylvania Republican House colleagues, urged a cautious approach by Scranton and wanted the governor to let surrogates do the active campaigning. Additionally, Scott provides insights into the Scranton nomination effort. See Come to the Party, 201-218. He also explains how he won reelection to the U.S. Senate in face of the Johnson landslide and the massive ticket-splitting that took place on his behalf, 220-223. For an account of the Eisenhower and Scranton's discussions of the latter's presidential effort, see Paul B. Beers, Pennsylvania Politics, 295-306, and John McLarnon, Ruling Suburbia, 208-209. For another excellent account of Scranton's presidential bid, see Robert D. Novak's The Agony of the G.O.P. 1964 (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1964); also see John J. Kennedy, Pennsylvania Elections, 176-77.
1968: Nixon and Humphrey
Pennsylvania primary vote percentages are available in Congressional Quarterly Political Report, January 22, 1972, 140. On the campaign, see Lewis Chester, Godfrey Hodgson, and Bruce Page, An American Melodrama, the Presidential Campaign of 1968 (New York: Viking, 1969),153-154; Paul Beers, Pennsylvania Politics, 184; "Lurching Off to a Shaky Start," Time, September 20, 1968; Lewis Chester et. al., America Melodrama, 624-25; and John J. Kennedy, Pennsylvania Elections, 176-78. For the impact of the changing presidential nomination rules on campaigns in Pennsylvania primaries from 1972 to 1996, see G. Terry Madonna and Berwood Yost. Pennsylvania Votes: Presidential Primaries, 1972-1992: A Sourcebook (Millersville, Pa.: Millersville University, 1996). This source book contains a list of presidential candidates who filed and appeared on the Pennsylvania ballot as well as statewide and county results for the presidential primaries from 1972 and 1992.
1972: Nixon and McGovern
A brief summary of Pennsylvania's primary law and history can be found in Congressional Quarterly Political Report, April 15, 1972, 860-861; see the same publication for a primary delegate overview, April 15,1972, 860., and for primary results, April 29,1972, 957. An excellent review of the recent changes in the presidential nomination process and their effects can be found in L. Sandy Maisel, Parties and Elections in America, 3rd ed.(New York: Rowan and Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2002), 266-321. For an account of Rizzo's activity and support on behalf of Richard Nixon, see Sal Paolantonio, Frank Rizzo: The Last Big Man in Big City America (Philadelphia: Camino Books Inc., 1993), 145-147; " The Confrontation of the Two Americas," Time, October 1972.
1976: Carter and Ford
The primary results with a companion state map by county can be found in Congressional Quarterly, April 12, 1980, 977-978. An account of Governor Milton Shapp's brief presidential run can be found in Paul Beers, Pennsylvania Politics, 383-387; Shapp's tenure as governor, as well as his presidential campaign, is covered in Klein and Hoogenboom, A History of Pennsylvania, 525-535. Dick Schweiker's political career and an account of his brief vice presidential candidacy can be found in Paul Beers, Presidential Politics, 433-438; George Wolf, William Warren Scranton, 165-168; and John J. Kennedy, Pennsylvania Elections, 179-181.
1980: Reagan and Carter
The role of organized labor in the Carter/Kennedy nomination is analyzed by James W. Singer, "Choosing Sides-Labor Unions Work for Kennedy and Carter in Pennsylvania," National Journal, April 19, 1980, 640-644. During Reagan's visit to Lancaster, when he responded to the issue of the cleanup of the damaged TMI nuclear reactor, he did indicate he was open to the possibility of a federal loan to underwrite the cleanup; see Pocono Record, April 22, 1980. Past Pennsylvania presidential primary results are listed in a table that is available in Congressional Quarterly, April 1980, 1007; for an analysis of the pre-primary Pennsylvania setting, see Congressional Quarterly, April 12, 1980, 976-979; for the actual April primary results, see Congressional Quarterly, April 26, 1980, 1079. An assessment of the effect of Kennedy's Pennsylvania victory appeared in "The Day of the Underdogs," Time, May, 5, 1980. For an analysis of the electoral college strategies and an assessment of Carter's reelection effort, see Richard S. Frank, "Don't Count Carter Out-At Least Not Yet," National Journal, August 23, 1980, 1384-1387. Ed Magnuson's "The Mood of the Voter," in Time, September 15, 1980, analyzed the prospects of Carter and Reagan using national polling data, and Time provided a wrap-up piece by Edwin Warner, "The Jackpot States," October 13, 1980, assessing Pennsylvania on the eve of the voting, including a look at the Philadelphia suburbs and relevant polling data.
1984: Reagan and Mondale
Accounts of the Democratic Pennsylvania presidential primary campaign can be found in Harrisburg Patriot-News, January 29, March 25, 1984, and in the Philadelphia Inquirer, April 11, 1984. In the Inquirer, April 9, 1984, Larry Eichel speculates that Gary Hart's presidential bid may have come to naught, indicating that Hart's early lead in the process had dissipated and following the Pennsylvania primary he was now the number-two candidate in the race behind Mondale. Pennsylvania primary results are available in Congressional Quarterly, April 26, 1968, 959. Reagan's swift wrap up of the nomination is summarized in "Clear Path to Re-nomination Presages Reagan Election Win," Congressional Quarterly, February 4, 1984, 221-24.
1988: Bush and Dukakis
The Democratic primary campaign in Pennsylvania is assessed by Robert Swift, "Pennsylvania Democrats are a Moderate Bunch," Sunbury Daily Item, July 14, 1988. An analysis of the movement of the state's GOP to the political right can be found in a piece written by Robert Swift, "Conventional Politics," The Pocono Record, August 14, 1988. Democratic results for the state events held just before the Pennsylvania primary can be found in Congressional Quarterly, April 16,1988, 1003, with the primary results on pages 1135-1136. In the New York Times, September 22, 1988, R. W. Apple reported that leaders in mid-September in both parties thought the election to be very close. Some of the reasons for the Dukakis campaign's failures are covered by Jules Witcover in his Party of the People: The History of the Democrats (New York: Random House, 2003). National polling results on the eve of the general election showed Bush with a strong lead as summarized in an Associated Press story in the Lancaster Intelligencer Journal, November 7, 1988; also see the Pocono Record, August 14, 1988. The National Journal, November 12, 1988, 2855, contains a table with comparisons of the network exit poll results for the 1984 and 1988 presidential elections.
1992: Clinton and Bush
Aspects of the Democratic primary campaign in Pennsylvania, including the Clinton and Brown campaigns, are analyzed the endorsements of various organizations, and poll standings appear in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, March 24, April 12, 28, 1992, Philadelphia Daily News, April 23, 24, and the Philadelphia Inquirer, April 16, 17, 21, 1992. For a summary of Clinton primary campaign activities and endorsements in the state, see Philadelphia Inquirer, April 26, 1992; for the Pennsylvania primary results, see Congressional Quarterly, May 2, 1992; for a summary of the primary contests through the end of May, see Rhodes Cooke, "A Trio of Pro Forma Primaries Sets Tone for June 2 Voting," Congressional Quarterly, May 30, 1992, 1553-1377. Governor Casey's reluctance to support Clinton was expressed several months before the Democratic convention and reported in the press. See Michael de Coursey Hinds, "Casey: Replace Clinton," a New York Times story appearing in the Harrisburg Patriot-News, April 24, 1992; for Casey's reluctance to support Clinton, Wilkes-Barre Times Leader, July 3, 1992; and for the battle between Casey and Clinton's campaign leaders at the New York convention, the Reading Times, July, 13,1992. A brief but descriptive account of the Democratic convention can be found in Congressional Quarterly, July 18, 1992. Governor Casey's position on abortion, his fight to pass a state law restricting abortion, his refusal to support Clinton, and the subsequent convention struggle are covered in Casey's autobiography, Fighting for Life: Gov. Robert P. Casey (Dallas: Word Publishing, 1996); also see the Harrisburg Patriot-News, July 10, 1992. Details of the organization efforts of the campaigns in Pennsylvania can be found in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, October, 16, 1992, and the importance of Pennsylvania in the national campaign in the Philadelphia Inquirer, October 11, 1992. The strategy of the Bush campaign is postulated in the Philadelphia Inquirer, July, 22, 1992. For a series of essays about various aspects of the 1992 presidential campaign, see Gerald Pomper, et. al., The Elections of 1992 Reports and Interpretations (Chatham, New Jersey: Chatham House Pub., Inc., 1993), and the Pennsylvania Exit Poll conducted for CNN and other networks by Voter Research & Surveys.
1996: Clinton and Dole
Arlen Specter's account of his short-lived presidential effort can be found in his memoir, Arlen Specter with Charles Robbins, Passion for Truth: from Finding JFK's Single Bullet to Questioning Anita Hill to Impeaching Clinton (New York: Harper Collins Inc., 2000), 422-426. A preview of the Pennsylvania primary can be found in Congressional Quarterly, August 19, 1995, 2576-2578. For an early assessment of Dole's difficulties in carrying Pennsylvania, see R. W. Apple Jr., The New York Times, August 8, 1996. The Clinton campaign's fund-raising and campaign visits are covered in the Philadelphia Inquirer, June 9, September 25, 26, 1996. Donald W. Bleacher has written an excellent comparison of the county votes for what he calls the traditional Democratic presidential candidates – Mondale and Dukakis in 1984 and 1988, respectively – with Clinton's two presidential campaign in 1992 and 1996; he concludes that the "moderate" Clinton's votes actually declined in the Democratic counties in the southwestern part of the state, see Donald W. Beachler, "A New Democratic Era? Presidential Politics in Pennsylvania," Commonwealth: A Journal of Political Science 9 (1997-1998), 57-73; for an assessment of the 1996 presidential election, see Stephen J. Wayne, The Road to the White House 1996: The Politics of Presidential Elections (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1997).
2000: Bush and Gore
One reason George Bush had Tom Ridge under consideration as a vice presidential running mate was because of the governor's early support for Bush; see Ken Dilanian and Robert Zausner, "Energized GOP set to greet Bush in Pa.," The Philadelphia Inquirer, June 24, 1994. For a solid general assessment of the 2000 presidential election, see Stephen J. Wayne, The Road To the White House 2000: The Politics of Presidential Elections (New York :St Martin's, 2000); Erie Times-Leader, March 5, 2000; Philadelphia Inquirer, July 26, 2000; and New York Times, September 10, 2000. Also see John J. Kennedy, Pennsylvania Elections, 187-189. Exit poll available at http://msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp?office=P&state=N1.
2004: Bush and Kerry
The candidacy of Howard Dean is assessed in The Washington Post National Weekly Edition, December 15-21, 10-11, in a piece written by Jim VandeHei and Dan Balz. The importance of Pennsylvania to a victory by Kerry is analyzed by Peter DeCoursey, Harrisburg Patriot-News, July 21, 2004. How social conservatives helped Bush win reelection is assessed in Congressional Quarterly Weekly, November 6, 2004, 2586-2592; for a series of essays dealing with the presidential election of 2004, see Michael Nelson, ed., The Elections of 2004 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2005). Also see John J. Kennedy, Pennsylvania Elections, 189-190. The exit polls can be found on CNN website at http://www.cnn.com/Election/2004/pages/results/states/Pa/P/00/epolls.0.html.
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